Final AtlasIntel poll for tomorrow's Romanian presidential election: Dan 48.7%, Simion 47.8%. Moderate candidate Dan leads among Gen Z and Boomers, as well as high-income voters and atheists. Far-right candidate Simion leads among Millennials and Gen X, as well as low-income voters and the Orthodox.
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German party support by age demographic: far-left Die Linke is the preferred party among Gen Z (18-24), far-right AfD is the preferred party among Millennials (25-44), and center-right Union is the preferred party among Gen X, Boomers, and up (45+). Center-left SPD lags far behind in all generations
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UK party support by age demographic: Labour is the preferred party among Gen Z and Millennials, Reform UK is the preferred party among Gen X, and the Conservatives are the preferred party among Boomers and up. Liberal Democrats have roughly consistent support across all generations.
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New AtlasIntel poll of Sunday's Romanian presidential election shows dead heat between pro-EU and anti-EU candidates: Dan 48%, Simion 48%. Romanian electorate split nearly 50/50 between pro-Trump, far-right candidate Simion and moderate candidate Dan, though other polls have put Simion in the lead.
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Why are immigrants across the West increasingly voting for rightwing parties?
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Why are immigrants across the West increasingly voting for rightwing parties?
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Far-right Reform UK surges to 13-point polling lead—by far its largest ever—as support for Conservatives shrinks to record low. Likewise, support for Liberal Democrats surges to its highest ever as support for Labour hits record low. Reform UK would win >400 out of 650 seats with these numbers.
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45% of Israelis back a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, while 41.5% of Israelis are opposed, according to a new poll (Israel Democracy Institute, April 21-24, 759 people). On US-Iran negotiations, 45.5% of Israelis believe that Trump will prioritize Israel's security, while 44% do not.
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Polling for next week's snap Portuguese legislative election, one of many European elections on May 18: Democratic Alliance 32%, Socialists 27%, Chega 19%, Liberal Initiative 5%, undecided 12%. Center-right Democratic Alliance on track to win another minority government as Socialists fall back.
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Support for Hamas in Palestine drops to lowest on record during war, according to new poll (PCPSR, May 1-4, 1270 people): 57% of Palestinians approve of Hamas. Approval ratings for various different organizations and nations: Houthis 74%, Hezbollah 43%, Iran 31%, China 26%, Russia 21%, US 3%.
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India-Pakistan war: in the very first poll of the war (Gallup), 79% of Pakistanis believe that Pakistan will win the war against India. 43% believe that the US has played a role in instigating the war, 31% believe that the US has played a role in promoting peace, and 22% do not know.
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India-Pakistan war: in the very first poll of the war (Gallup), 79% of Pakistanis believe that Pakistan will win the war against India. 43% believe that the US has played a role in instigating the war, 31% believe that the US has played a role in promoting peace, and 22% do not know.
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Far-right Reform UK achieves its best-ever polling lead in a YouGov poll: REF 29%, LAB 22%, CON 17%, LIB 16%, GRN 10%, SNP 3%. After a landslide victory in last week's local elections, Reform UK sees surge in support, and is projected to win the most seats (~200) in Westminster with these numbers.
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First poll of Romanian presidential election runoff (May 18) shows pro-Trump, anti-Ukrainian candidate George Simion in lead: Simion 55%, Dan 45%. In an election upended by court annulments and candidate bans, far-right, Eurosceptic candidate Simion continues to dominate in run up to election day.
A place for political maps & election predictions. “Home of the election mafia” -Red Eagle Politics.
First poll of Romanian presidential election runoff (May 18) shows pro-Trump, anti-Ukrainian candidate George Simion in lead: Simion 55%, Dan 45%. In an election upended by court annulments and candidate bans, far-right, Eurosceptic candidate Simion continues to dominate in run up to election day.
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Canada’s new Conservative movement resembles Donald Trump’s—just as in the United States, working-class and immigrant voters swung right
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First French presidential election poll (2nd round) since court ban on Marine Le Pen's candidacy: Bardella 50%, Philippe 50%. Bardella 52%, Attal 48%. Bardella 67%, Melenchon 33%. Far-right Bardella effectively tied with center-right candidates Philippe and Attal; Bardella leads far-left Melenchon.
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Ipsos poll of this month's Polish presidential election: Trzaskowski 28%, Nawrocki 22%, Mentzen 15%, Hołownia 7%, Zandberg 6%, undecided 8%. Second round: Trzaskowski 50%, Nawrocki 43%, undecided 7%. Centrist Trzaskowski leads rightwing PiS candidate Nawrocki in polls, though with reduced lead.
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Far-right Reform UK achieves its best-ever polling lead in a YouGov poll: REF 26%, LAB 23%, CON 20%, LIB 15%, GRN 9%, SNP 3%. After a landslide victory in this month's local elections, Reform UK rises in multiple polls, and is projected to win the most seats (~200) in Westminster with these numbers.
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Canada election: Mark Carney’s Liberals projected to form government
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Final YouGov MRP update for Monday's Canadian federal election: LPC 42%, CPC 39%, NDP 10%, BQ 5%, GPC 2%, PPC 2%. Seats projection: LPC 185 (MAJ), CPC 135, BQ 18, NDP 3, GPC 2, PPC 0. After Liberals surge in the polls, model gives 90% chance to LPC majority, and just <1% chance to CPC majority.
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First French presidential election poll since court ban on Marine Le Pen's candidacy: Bardella 31%, Philippe 21%, Melenchon 10%, Retailleau 9%. Far-right National Rally candidate Jordan Bardella leads early poll of 2027 election; center-right Macronist candidate Edouard Philippe in second place.
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New AtlasIntel poll of next month's Romanian presidential election, following court annulment of last year's election: Simion 33%, Antonescu 25%, Dan 21%, Ponta 10%, Lasconi 5%. Second round: Antonescu 49%, Simion 36%. MOE 2%. Far-right candidate Simion trails center-right Antonescu in 2nd round.
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